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Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC

oai:digital.csic.es:10261/283380

[Usage Notes] Data files from Regos et al. (2018) These data files include the environmental suitability predicted from the SESAM framework for each bird species, under each run simulation and management scenario. It also includes the Natura 2000 network at 100 m and all remaining files required to run MARXAN simulations. Datafiles.zip, 1. The combined effects of climate change and other factors, such as land use change or fire disturbance, pose daunting challenges for biodiversity conservation worldwide. 2. In this study, we predicted the future effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000), the current network of protected areas (PA) in Europe, at maintaining and representing suitable environmental conditions for a set of 79 bird species between 2000 and 2050 in a fire-prone area strongly affected by land abandonment processes in NE Spain. We then compared PA performance against a set of alternative priority areas for conservation, which take into account fire–vegetation dynamics, selected by using a conservation planning tool (MARXAN). Fire–vegetation dynamics were modelled using a process-based model (MEDFIRE MODEL) under alternative fire management and climate change scenarios. Bird assemblage distributions were predicted using the spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling frameworkSESAMusing distribution models from individual species that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. 3. The amount of suitable environmental conditions within the N2000 network was predicted to fall by around 15%, on average, over the next decades in relation to the initial conditions, but could be partially modulated by fire management policies in the near future. The efficiency of the current PA system was predicted to decrease from 17.4 to 15% over the next decades. However, a more efficient PA system could be achieved with a conservation planning approach that explicitly considers fire–vegetation dynamics and their management. 4. Synthesis and applications: Our findings shed light on: (1) how the current Natura 2000 might still hold an important bird conservation value by 2050; (2) how the relocation of some protected areas could be considered along the next decades to substantially increase bird conservation effectiveness; and (3) how the integration of fire-vegetation dynamics, fire management policies and their objectives within conservation planning can provide ‘win-win’ solutions for bird conservation and fire prevention in fire-prone abandoned landscapes., Peer reviewed