BUSCADOR RECOLECTA

This dataset was used to analyze survival probabilities of adult Audouin’s gull depending on early conditions (density-dependence and Winter NAO) experienced by the individuals., Capture mark recapture data of Audouin gulls breeding from 1995 until 2009 in Mediterranean locations including Ebro Delta, Chafarinas Islands, Columbretes Islands and Mallorca islets in the Balearic Islands. Individuals are shown in rows and years in columns followed by the cohort on which they were born, and the environmental covariates associated to that year. This data set has been used for the publication: Payo-Payo, A.; Sanz-Aguilar, A. and Oro, D. (2022) Long-lasting effects of harsh early-life conditions on adult survival of a long-lived vertebrate. OIKOS., We acknowledge financial support through projects RESET (CGL2017-85210-P), IBISES (ref. CGL2013-42203-R) and MINOW (ref. H2020- 634495)., This work was funded through projects RESET (CGL2017-85210-P) and IBISES (ref. CGL2013-42203-R). APP was supported by a predoctoral fellowship of the Ministry of Education (FPU-AP 2012-0869). ASA is supported by a postdoctoral contract co-funded by the Regional Government of the Balearic Islands and the European Social Fund (ref. PD/003/2016) and a Ramón y Cajal fellowship ( Ref. RYC-2017- 22796)., The data file contains resight histories of Audouin’s gulls born at Ebro Delta and observed during breeding seasons 1995 to 2009. This file contains one line per individual; one column per encounter occasion (from column 1 to 15 were code 1 indicate resight at Ebro Delta colony and code 2 resight at other colony); one line indicating the number of individual capture histories (column 16); and three further columns indicating the standardized values of early life individual covariates (columns 17, 18, and 19; for DD, WNAO, and DD*WNAO, respectively)., No

Disentangling the influence of demographic parameters and the role of density dependence on species’ population dynamics may be challenging, especially when there are fractions of the population that are unobservable (e.g. dispersers, non-breeders). Additionally, due to the difficulty of gathering data at large spatial scales, most studies ignore the global dynamic of a species, which would integrate heterogeneity in local dynamics and remove the noise of dispersal. We developed a global scale, integrated population model (IPM), to disentangle the main demographic drivers of population dynamics in a long-lived colonial seabird. We used 28 years of Audouin’s gull demographic data encompassing 69 local patches (90% of the world population). Importantly, we took into account the unobservable fraction of non-breeders and also assessed the strength of density dependence for this fraction of the population. As predicted by life histories of long-lived organisms, temporal random variation in survival was highest for immatures (), and lowest for adults (). Large temporal fluctuations in the probability of taking a sabbatical from reproduction would partly explain constancy in adult survival, adults probably refraining from breeding when environmental conditions were harsh. Thus, skipping breeding would be a bet hedging strategy for long-lived organisms having many reproductive chances during their lifespan. Immature survival and fertility were the main drivers of population dynamics during the study period (r2= 0.83 (0.77-0.87) and 0.73 (0.63-0.79) respectively). We found strong evidence of density dependence, not only due to the number of breeders (r2= -0.34 (-0.43 -0.24)) but also to that of sabbaticals (r2= -0.18 (-0.33 -0.01)). Even though population dynamics of long-lived organisms are very sensitive to changes in adult survival, we show here that in the absence of strong environmental perturbations affecting this life history trait, fluctuations in population density in those species may be driven by variations of immature survival and fertility. The species is showing a 5% of annual global decrease during the last ten years, and we propose an updated species conservation status. Integrated models based on long term monitoring at a global scale may enhance our ecological and evolutionary understanding of how demographic drivers influence population dynamics., No

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Peer reviewed