CARACTERISTICAS DE LOS ACTIVOS, CONDUCTA DE LOS INVERSORES Y FORMACION DE PRECIOS
ECO2012-35946-C02-01
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Nombre agencia financiadora Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Acrónimo agencia financiadora MINECO
Programa Programa Nacional de Investigación Fundamental
Subprograma Investigación fundamental no-orientada
Convocatoria Proyectos de Investigación Fundamental No-Orientada
Año convocatoria 2012
Unidad de gestión Dirección General de Investigación Científica y Técnica
Centro beneficiario UNIVERSIDAD PÚBLICA DE NAVARRA (UPNA)
Centro realización DEPARTAMENTO DE GESTIÓN DE EMPRESAS
Identificador persistente http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329
Publicaciones
Found(s) 24 result(s)
Found(s) 1 page(s)
Found(s) 1 page(s)
The impact of investor sentiment on stock returns in emerging markets. The case of Central European markets
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Eastern European Economics on July 2015, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1079139, This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on stock returns in three Central European markets: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that sentiment is a key variable in the prices of stocks traded on these markets and its impact is stronger here than in more developed European markets. This effect is linked to stock characteristics, particularly those considered to make stocks more prone to the influences of investor sentiment. The evidence shows that the effect is not uniform across countries, since higher levels are found for Poland and the Czech Republic, thus confirming the role of country-specific factors in the impact of investor sentiment on stock prices. The results also confirm that sentiment is a twofold (global and local) phenomenon, in which the global dimension has much greater impact than the local dimension, at least in the markets considered. Finally, the paper has shown that sentiment does not spread, at least to any significant degree, through the movement of capital between markets. This strengthens the argument that sentiment is transmitted through a behavioral mechanism. If this argument proves correct, there is little likelihood of local regulatory action being very effective in limiting the perverse impact of asset bubbles., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and
Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01).
Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01).
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Elena Ferrer would also like to thank the Scientific Research Grant from Fundación Banco Herrero 2012.
Volatility transmission among European Bank CDS
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Alemany, Aida
- Ballester Miquel, Laura
- González Urteaga, Ana
A partir de la crisis subprime en 2007 y hasta la reciente crisis de deuda de la zona euro el sector bancario europeo ha experimentado una terrible situación de inestabilidad financiera traducida en un aumento de los niveles de los CDS (utilizados como aproximación del riesgo de crédito). Este trabajo investiga si los canales de transmisión de volatilidad en los mercados bancarios europeos han cambiado después de tres importantes eventos de crisis durante el período comprendido entre enero de 2006 y marzo de 2013. La crisis financiera global se ha caracterizado por un efecto spillover unidireccional de los shocks en volatilidad del riesgo de crédito desde el interior al exterior de la Eurozona. Por el contrario, la crisis de deuda de la Eurozona se revela como una crisis de naturaleza local con el euro como elemento clave, lo que deja de manifiesto la existencia de una fragmentación del mercado entre los países periféricos más castigados por la crisis y los países del centro de la Eurozona con menores dificultades, mientras que por otro lado, mantener la moneda local ha actuado como cortafuegos. Estos resultados arrojan luz sobre el impacto del riesgo de crédito bancario en Europa para diferentes estados de crisis financieras., From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, where as retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics., L. Ballester would like to express her gratitude for the funding received from UV-INV-PRECOMP-80704 and A. González-Urteaga acknowledges financial support from ECO2012-35946-C02-01 and ECO2012-34268.
The role of investor type in the fee structures of pension plans
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10693-015-0230-1, We examine the role of the investor type in the fee structure of pension plans. Our examination uses a data set of employer-sponsored and individual private pension funds in Spain. We find different determinants of the fees between these two pension plans. We find evidence of market penetration strategies in individual plans but none in employer-sponsored plans. In these plans, the fees are negatively related to their financial groups’ market share, whereas in individual plans this relation is negative for management fees but positive for custodian fees. Further, except in the case of custodian fees in individual plans, we find that all fees diminish when the custodian and management firms belong to different financial groups., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish
Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges
the financial support of the Andalusian Regional Government (P12-SEJ-1733).
Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges
the financial support of the Andalusian Regional Government (P12-SEJ-1733).
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Pricing levered warrants with dilution using observable variables
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
- Navas, Javier F.
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Quantitative Finance on August 2013, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2013.771280, We propose a valuation framework for pricing European call warrants on the issuer's own stock that allows for debt in the issuer firm. In contrast to other works which also price warrants with dilution issued by levered firms, ours uses only observable variables. Thus, we extend the models of both Crouhy and Galai (1994) and Ukhov (2004). We provide numerical examples to study some implementation issues and to compare the model with existing ones., The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (grants ECO2012-35946-C02-01 and ECO2012-34268)
Does default probability matter in Latin American emerging markets?
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade on 2014/12/7, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X490504., We analyse the impact of default probability in four leading Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). We find no positive default risk premium except in the case of Brazil, and in fact find a negative risk premium for Argentina and Mexico. The latter effect tends to fade when the analysis accounts for size and BTM market variables. Although we find no size effect in any of the markets considered, the BTM effect is very strong in all of them, and our results reveal a consistent relationship, analogous to that found in more developed markets, between default probability and the size and book-to-market variables., This paper has received financial supp
ort from the Spanish Ministry of Science
and Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
(ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges the financial support
of the Andalusian Regional Government (P09-SEJ-4467).
ort from the Spanish Ministry of Science
and Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
(ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges the financial support
of the Andalusian Regional Government (P09-SEJ-4467).
El sentimiento del inversor y las rentabilidades de las acciones. El caso español, Investor sentiment and stock returns. The Spanish case.
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Spanish Journal of Finance
and Accounting / Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad in 2013, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02102412.2013.10779746, El presente trabajo analiza el efecto del sentimiento en las rentabilidades de los activos del
mercado español. Los resultados muestran un efecto significativo del índice de sentimiento local sobre
las rentabilidades de los activos del propio mercado, tanto sobre el mercado en su conjunto como en
carteras de activos más sensibles por su dificultad de valoración o de arbitraje. También se ha mostrado
la existencia de un efecto del sentimiento en dos esferas diferentes, una de ámbito más global
y otra de ámbito local independiente de la anterior, probablemente ligada a aspectos institucionales
o culturales del mercado. Si bien el primero causa al segundo, no se encuentra evidencia de que el
mecanismo de transmisión esté relacionado con la actividad real asociada con los flujos de capitales
entre mercados. El análisis del efecto del sentimiento durante la última crisis financiera robustece los
resultados. No obstante, el sentimiento global absorbe todo el efecto del sentimiento local lo que deja
intuir el carácter global de la crisis actual., This paper analyzes the investor sentiment effect in the Spanish stock returns. The findings
show that local sentiment has a significant influence on their own future returns, not only on the
market as a whole but also on stocks that are hard to value and more costly and risky to arbitrage. We
also find that both global and local sentiment have a significant infl uence on returns, the latter probably
linked to country cultural or institutional characteristics. Although the causality runs from global
sentiment to local sentiment, we do not find evidence that private capital flows are one mechanism by
which sentiment spreads across markets. The analysis of the sentiment effect during the latest fi nancial
crisis increases the robustness of our results. However, global sentiment absorbs the effect of local
sentiment, which indicates the global character of the crisis., Los autores agradecen la ayuda financiera del proyecto ECO2009-12819 del Ministerio Español de
Ciencia e Innovación y del Ministerio de Economía y Competetividad ECO2012-35946.
and Accounting / Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad in 2013, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02102412.2013.10779746, El presente trabajo analiza el efecto del sentimiento en las rentabilidades de los activos del
mercado español. Los resultados muestran un efecto significativo del índice de sentimiento local sobre
las rentabilidades de los activos del propio mercado, tanto sobre el mercado en su conjunto como en
carteras de activos más sensibles por su dificultad de valoración o de arbitraje. También se ha mostrado
la existencia de un efecto del sentimiento en dos esferas diferentes, una de ámbito más global
y otra de ámbito local independiente de la anterior, probablemente ligada a aspectos institucionales
o culturales del mercado. Si bien el primero causa al segundo, no se encuentra evidencia de que el
mecanismo de transmisión esté relacionado con la actividad real asociada con los flujos de capitales
entre mercados. El análisis del efecto del sentimiento durante la última crisis financiera robustece los
resultados. No obstante, el sentimiento global absorbe todo el efecto del sentimiento local lo que deja
intuir el carácter global de la crisis actual., This paper analyzes the investor sentiment effect in the Spanish stock returns. The findings
show that local sentiment has a significant influence on their own future returns, not only on the
market as a whole but also on stocks that are hard to value and more costly and risky to arbitrage. We
also find that both global and local sentiment have a significant infl uence on returns, the latter probably
linked to country cultural or institutional characteristics. Although the causality runs from global
sentiment to local sentiment, we do not find evidence that private capital flows are one mechanism by
which sentiment spreads across markets. The analysis of the sentiment effect during the latest fi nancial
crisis increases the robustness of our results. However, global sentiment absorbs the effect of local
sentiment, which indicates the global character of the crisis., Los autores agradecen la ayuda financiera del proyecto ECO2009-12819 del Ministerio Español de
Ciencia e Innovación y del Ministerio de Economía y Competetividad ECO2012-35946.
Coasimetría idiosincrática y riesgo de insolvencia en el mercado de valores español, Idiosyncratic coskewness and default risk in the Spanish stock market
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- González Urteaga, Ana
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting / Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad on September 2013, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02102412.2014.942969, En el presente trabajo se analiza la relación entre el riesgo asimétrico, aproximado por las medidas de coasimetría y coasimetría idiosincrática, y el riesgo de insolvencia en el mercado de valores español. Se ha encontrado que aquellos títulos con mayor riesgo asimétrico proporcionan mayores rentabilidades durante el periodo considerado, en especial aquellos con valores positivos de la medida de coasimetría idiosincrática. Sin embargo, ni los factores de riesgo construidos en base a esta medida, ni el factor de riesgo de coasimetría proporcionan capacidad explicativa a las rentabilidades diferenciales de las carteras convencionales formadas por riesgo de insolvencia, siendo principalmente el factor tamaño (SMB) el que aporta explicación a dichas rentabilidades, tanto en periodos expansivos como durante el periodo de crisis financiera. Los factores de riesgo asimétrico únicamente presentan capacidad explicativa en el caso de carteras con riesgo de insolvencia más extremo y durante el periodo de crisis financiera internacional., This paper analyses the relationship between asymmetric risk, proxied by idiosyncratic
coskewness and coskewness measures, and default risk in the Spanish stock market.
We have found that those stocks with greater asymmetric risk provide higher returns
during the period considered, primarily those with positive idiosyncratic coskewness.
However, neither risk factors built based on this measure nor the risk factor for
coskewness provides explanatory power for the differential return between the portfolios
sorted on default risk. The size factor (SMB) exhibits some explanation power to
those returns, both in expansion periods and during the period of financial crisis.
Idiosyncratic coskewness risk factors show explanatory capacity only for extreme
default risk portfolios and during the international financial crisis period., Deseamos agradecer la ayuda financiera del Ministerio de Economía y Competividad (proyecto
ECO2012-35946-C02-01) y Ana Gonzalez-Urteaga al Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
(proyecto ECO2012-34268).
coskewness and coskewness measures, and default risk in the Spanish stock market.
We have found that those stocks with greater asymmetric risk provide higher returns
during the period considered, primarily those with positive idiosyncratic coskewness.
However, neither risk factors built based on this measure nor the risk factor for
coskewness provides explanatory power for the differential return between the portfolios
sorted on default risk. The size factor (SMB) exhibits some explanation power to
those returns, both in expansion periods and during the period of financial crisis.
Idiosyncratic coskewness risk factors show explanatory capacity only for extreme
default risk portfolios and during the international financial crisis period., Deseamos agradecer la ayuda financiera del Ministerio de Economía y Competividad (proyecto
ECO2012-35946-C02-01) y Ana Gonzalez-Urteaga al Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
(proyecto ECO2012-34268).
Transmisión del riesgo de crédito en el sector bancario Europeo: crisis subprime y deuda soberana, Credit risk transmission in the European banking sector: the case of the subprime and Eurozone debt crises
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Ballester Miquel, Laura
- González Urteaga, Ana
- Tudela Ferrándiz, David
El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar en profundidad la transmisión del riesgo de
crédito, aproximado por los CDS spreads, en el sector bancario europeo durante el
periodo 2006-2012, intentando dar respuesta a diversas cuestiones: (i) ¿existe evidencia
de transmisión del riesgo de crédito entre las entidades financieras europeas de la
Eurozona y las que no pertenecen a dicha zona?, (ii) ¿es esta transmisión bidireccional
o unidireccional?, (iii) concretamente, ¿qué países han liderado dicha transmisión?, y
(iv) ¿cómo se ha visto afectada dicha transmisión con las recientes crisis financieras?
Los resultados indican un cambio significativo en la transmisión del riesgo de crédito
con el estallido de la crisis subprime, con un efecto notable proveniente de los bancos
de la Eurozona hacia los que no pertenecen a dicha zona., The aim of this paper is to analyse in depth the transmission of credit risk, approximated
by the CDS spreads, in the European banking sector during the period
2006–2012, attempting to respond to several questions: (i) is there any evidence of
credit risk transmission between the European financial institutions in the Eurozone
and those not belonging to this zone?, (ii) is this transmission bidirectional or unidirectional?,
(iii) specifically, what countries have led such transmission? and (iv) how
this transmission has been affected by the recent financial crisis? The results indicate a
significant change in credit risk transmission with the outbreak of the subprime crisis,
with a remarkable effect from the Eurozone banks to those not belonging to this zone., Los autores agradecen la financiación recibida de la Fundación Ramón Areces y A. González-Urteaga de ECO2012-35946-C02-01 y ECO2012-34268.
crédito, aproximado por los CDS spreads, en el sector bancario europeo durante el
periodo 2006-2012, intentando dar respuesta a diversas cuestiones: (i) ¿existe evidencia
de transmisión del riesgo de crédito entre las entidades financieras europeas de la
Eurozona y las que no pertenecen a dicha zona?, (ii) ¿es esta transmisión bidireccional
o unidireccional?, (iii) concretamente, ¿qué países han liderado dicha transmisión?, y
(iv) ¿cómo se ha visto afectada dicha transmisión con las recientes crisis financieras?
Los resultados indican un cambio significativo en la transmisión del riesgo de crédito
con el estallido de la crisis subprime, con un efecto notable proveniente de los bancos
de la Eurozona hacia los que no pertenecen a dicha zona., The aim of this paper is to analyse in depth the transmission of credit risk, approximated
by the CDS spreads, in the European banking sector during the period
2006–2012, attempting to respond to several questions: (i) is there any evidence of
credit risk transmission between the European financial institutions in the Eurozone
and those not belonging to this zone?, (ii) is this transmission bidirectional or unidirectional?,
(iii) specifically, what countries have led such transmission? and (iv) how
this transmission has been affected by the recent financial crisis? The results indicate a
significant change in credit risk transmission with the outbreak of the subprime crisis,
with a remarkable effect from the Eurozone banks to those not belonging to this zone., Los autores agradecen la financiación recibida de la Fundación Ramón Areces y A. González-Urteaga de ECO2012-35946-C02-01 y ECO2012-34268.
Consumer confidence indices and stock markets' meltdowns
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Salaber, Julie
- Zalewska, Anna
Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries' economic health, and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000-2002 and the 2007-2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets' investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong et al., 1990), however, we find that the CCI-stock market relationship is not universally positive. We also do not find support for the information effect documented in previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations., Elena Ferrer acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012–35946-C02-01).
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Bank fragility and contagion: evidence from the bank CDS market
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Ballester Miquel, Laura
- Casu, Barbara
- González Urteaga, Ana
Understanding how contagion works among financial institutions is a top priority for regulators and policy makers who aim to foster financial stability and to prevent financial crises. Using bank credit default swap (CDS) data, we provide a framework for the evaluation of contagion among banks in different countries and regions during a period of prolonged financial distress. We measure contagion in terms of return spillovers, following a Generalized VAR (GVAR) approach. In addition, we propose an innovative framework to distinguish between two types of contagion: systematic (linked to global factors), and idiosyncratic (linked to bank specific factors). We find evidence of both types of contagion, although the spillover dynamics changed over time. Our measure of systematic contagion is always greater than the idiosyncratic component, thus highlighting the importance of common factors in the propagation of risk spillovers. This indicates that international linkages among banking markets are central to the transmission of shocks., Laura Ballester and Ana González-Urteaga would like to express their gratitude for the funding received from Fundación Ramón Areces. Ana González-Urteaga acknowledges financial support from ECO2012-34268, ECO2012-35946 and from Cass Business School under the Pump Priming Grant Scheme.
The role of sentiment and stock characteristics in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
The purpose of this paper is to further understanding of the determinants of analysts’ translational effectiveness and, specifically, the role of stock characteristics in the impact of sentiment in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations. We construct a proxy of intrinsic value of a stock based on that of Ohlson (1995), which incorporates all the information contained in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results show that, although analysts do translate their earnings forecast valuations into recommendations, the effectiveness of this process is reduced by investor sentiment only in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks. This suggests the degree of analyst coverage as a potential conditioner of the observable results in a market. While not totally eliminating this observed effect, the Market Abuse Directive regulation does contribute to reduce the skew between analysts’ earnings forecasts and their recommendations. Finally, analysis of this effect reveals that this kind of skew enables investment strategies yielding positive risk-adjusted returns in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks, during periods of high market sentiment., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01 and ECO2016-77631-R (AEI/FEDER, UE). Elena Ferrer would also like to acknowledge a Scientific Research Grant from the Fundación Banco Herrero 2012.
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Volatility spillovers in the European bank CDS market
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Alemany, Aida
- Ballester Miquel, Laura
- González Urteaga, Ana
From the 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis,the banking industry has experienced terrible financial instabilitywith increasing volatility levels of bank default probability. UsingEuropean CDS spreads data from January 2006 to March 2013, thispaper sheds light on the impact of three recent significant events ofcredit risk volatility transmission between, firstly, Eurozone andnon-Eurozone banks, and then between distressed peripheral andcore countries inside the Eurozone. We employ an asymmetricmultivariate BEKK model to measure cross-market volatility spil-lovers. We find that both recent crises are distinct episodes. Theglobal financial crisis that originated outside Europe is character-ized by unidirectional volatility spillovers in credit risk from insideto outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis isrevealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element,suggesting a financial market fragmentation within the Eurozonebetween distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozonecountries, whereas retaining the local currency has acted as afirewall., The authors would like to express their gratitude for the funding received from Fundación Ramón Areces. A. González-Urteaga acknowledges financial support from ECO2012-35946-C02-01 and ECO2012-34268.
The information environment, informed trading and volatility
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Blasco de las Heras, Natividad
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
The relation between informed trading and volatility is analyzed using the change in the proportion of informed transactions calculated through the probability of informed trading variable. The analysis relates to the Spanish market during 1997–2010, given that the Spanish market covers a very diverse range of listed companies. Some companies are comparable to companies listed on U.S. markets while others are smaller in size and have a lower trading volume and inferior quality of information. The methodology is based on a modification of the model proposed by Avramov, Chordia, and Goyal [2006]. The authors’ proposal incorporates the change in the proportion of informed transactions, calculated with intraday data, into the volatility model. The results are also presented using a conditional volatility model in which the change in the proportion of informed transactions is incorporated. These results attest to the influence of informed trading as a price-stabilizing factor in heavily traded and highly capitalized stocks (familiar stocks). Informed trading leads to a marked decrease in volatility for these particular stocks both in periods of calm and crisis., This article has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01, ECO2016-77631-R AEI/FEDER, UE, and ECO2013-45568-R), and from the Government of Aragón/European Social Fund (S14/2).
Sentiment-prone investors and volatility dynamics between spot and futures markets
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This paper analyses the role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics of spot and futures markets and in volatility spillovers between them. To explore this issue, we analyse spot and futures markets on stock market indexes in different countries: the S&P500 for the US, and a representative set of European indexes (CAC40, DAX30, FTSE100, IBEX35 and Eurostoxx50). Consistent with expectations, we have shown that the correlation is not stable with the level of investor sentiment. More specifically, the correlation between the two markets diminishes significantly during periods of high investor sentiment. Moreover, volatility shocks in either market are also found to have less impact during these periods. These results are compatible with behavioural finance theories suggesting that high investor sentiment leads to an increase in noise trading and a decline in arbitrage activity due to institutional investors’ attempts to limit their risk exposure., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01).
Volatility risk premia betas
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- González Urteaga, Ana
- Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo
This paper analyzes the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of thevolatility risk premia betas at the portfolio level. These betas show a monotonic relation with respect to the magnitude of the volatility risk premium payoffs. Moreover, portfolio conditional volatility risk premia betas increase significantly in recessions. In particular, these betas tend to increase significantly with default premium, market betas and the HML and SMB Fama-French risk factors. On the other hand, conditional betas tend to decrease when industrial production growth, consumption growth, the market excess return, and the momentum factor increase., The authors acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness through grant ECO2012-34268. Ana González-Urteaga also acknowledges financial support from ECO2012-35946 and Gonzalo Rubio from Generalitat Valenciana grant PROMETEOII/2013/015.
Momentum and default risk. Some results using the jump component
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- González Urteaga, Ana
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
In this paper we separate the total stock return into its continuous and jump component to test whether stock return predictability should be attributed to omitted risk factors or behavioral finance theories. We extend results from the US market to the Spanish stock market, which, despite being a developed market, presents several differences in terms of stock characteristics, financial system, investor typology and cultural dimensions. The results show that the jump component has significant explanatory power for the premium of three characteristics (size, book-to-market and illiquidity), which is at odds with risk-based explanations. Using the same testing strategy, we try to shed some light on an important controversy concerning the relationship between default risk and momentum. The results suggest that default risk is not the source of momentum returns., This paper has received financial support from
the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-
35946-C02-01). In addition, Ana González-Urteaga acknowledges financial
support from ECO2012-34268.
the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-
35946-C02-01). In addition, Ana González-Urteaga acknowledges financial
support from ECO2012-34268.
Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: stock characteristics or country-specific factors?
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Corredor Casado, María Pilar
- Ferrer Zubiate, Elena
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This paper analyzes the investor sentiment effect in four key European stock markets: France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The findings show that sentiment has a significant influence on returns, varying in intensity across markets. The variation appears to involve both stock characteristics and cross-country cultural or institutional differences. The results also show sensitivity to the choice of sentiment proxy., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and from the
Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01).
Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01).
Stock characteristics, investor type and market myopia
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Río Solano, María Cristina del
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Behavioral Science on 2016/05/25, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2016.1170682., This paper investigates the role of stock characteristics and investor type in market myopia. Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to control for endogeneity, we obtain evidence indicating that market myopia is greater among stocks that are relatively hard-to-value and hard-to-arbitrage, and find this conclusion to be robust to the choice of proxy for these characteristics. We also obtain a significantly negative relationship between institutional ownership and market myopia, due to the former acting as informed traders who exploit mispricing created by individual traders. It is important to note that the impact of their role becomes significant only when they have a sizeable share in firm ownership, as is the case of UK mutual funds and pension funds and Spanish banks., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO 2012-35946-C02-01).
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Game, set and match: the favorite long-shot bias in tennis betting exchanges
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Economics Letters on May 2016, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1093074, We test for the existence of Favorite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis betting exchanges. Despite these being order-driven markets, with no direct participation from bookmakers, we have found very similar results to those obtained by Lahvička (2014) for bookmakers’ betting markets: the bias is stronger in matches between lower ranked players, in later round matches and in high profile tournaments. This suggests that bookmakers’ adjustments to respond to informed betting are not the main driver of FLB. The varying magnitude of the bias across different types of event in the main market also weakens arguments linking FLB to gamblers’ risk preferences, and suggests the need to consider the microstructure features of the market together with the cognitive biases highlighted in the behavioral finance literature., This article has received financial support from the Spanish
Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [ECO2012-
35946-C02-01]. Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges
the financial support of the Andalusian Regional
Government [P12-SEJ-1713].
Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [ECO2012-
35946-C02-01]. Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges
the financial support of the Andalusian Regional
Government [P12-SEJ-1713].
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Behavioral biases never walk alone: an empirical analysis of the effect of overconfidence on probabilities
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This paper presents evidence of the impact of overconfidence bias in asset prices drawn from a study based on data from tennis betting exchanges. A series of betting strategies in tournaments with a clear-cut favourite are shown to yield significant economic returns. The impact of overconfidence bias on betting odds increases with trading volume, media coverage, and levels of disagreement between overconfident and Cumulative Prospect Theory bettors. Just as in traditional financial markets, arbitrage limits are shown to be a necessary condition for the impact of behavioural biases on prices., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2012-35946-C02-01)
Proyecto: MINECO//ECO2012-35946-C02-01
Banking stability, competition, and economic volatility
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Fernández, Ana
- Suárez Suárez, Nuria
- González Rodríguez, Francisco
The paper analyzes the influence of banking stability on the volatility of industrial value added and how it varies across 110 countries depending on bank market competition and bank-firm relationships. We find that banking stability reduces the volatility of value added more in industries that have greater external dependence and intangible intensity when they are located in countries with more developed financial systems and better investor protection. These results are consistent with the relevance of a lending channel and an asset allocation channel such as the channels through which banking stability diminishes industrial economic volatility. Moreover, we find that banking stability helps reduce economic volatility more, through both channels, in countries that have less bank market competition or close bank-firm relationships. We use several proxies for banking stability and control for countries’ banking development, reverse causality problems, and endogeneity of banking stability., Ana I. Fernández and Francisco González acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Project ECO2012-31772. Nuria Suárez acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Project ECO2012-35946.
The cross-sectional variation of volatility risk premia
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- González Urteaga, Ana
- Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo
This paper analyzes the determinants of the cross-sectional variation of the average volatility risk premia for a representative set of portfolios sorted by volatility risk premium beta. The market volatility risk premium and, especially, the default premium are shown to be key risk factors in the cross-sectional variation of average volatility risk premium payoffs. The cross-sectional variation of risk premia seems to reflect a very different behavior of the underlying components of our sample portfolios with respect to credit or financial stress that generates a significant dispersion of the volatility swap pricing of these securities., The authors acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness through Grant ECO2012-34268. In addition, Gonzalo Rubio acknowledges financial support from Generalitat Valenciana Grant PROMETEOII/2013/015, and Ana González-Urteaga acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness through Grant ECO2012-35946.
Is default risk the hidden factor in momentum returns? Some empirical results
Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
- Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel
- Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando
- Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Abinzano, I., Muga, L. and Santamaria, R. (2014), Is default risk the hidden factor in momentum returns? Some empirical results. Account Finance, 54: 671–698, which has been published in final form at doi:10.1111/acfi.12021. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving., This paper analyzes the role of default risk in the momentum effect focusing on data from four developed European stock markets (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom). Using a market-based measure of default risk, we show that it is not the hidden factor behind this effect. While the loser portfolio is characterized by high default risk, small size, high BTM and illiquidity, characterization of the winner portfolio is somewhat more complex. Given that the momentum strategy is the return differential between the winners and the losers, factors such as the stock market cycle or the evolution of momentum portfolios against their reference point make momentum profits difficult to forecast., This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and
Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
(ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges the financial
support of the Andalusian Regional Government (P09-SEJ-4467).
Innovation (ECO2009-12819) and the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
(ECO2012-35946-C02-01). Isabel Abinzano particularly acknowledges the financial
support of the Andalusian Regional Government (P09-SEJ-4467).